Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz at the Presidential Family Forum on November 20, 2015 in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
If the official kickoff of election season is the Iowa Caucuses, then Thursday's GOP debate is arguably the last preseason game for the Republicans competing for the presidentball championship. There have been six such debates already, enough for a lot of viewers to grow tired of this serialized remake of Twelve Angry Men, and this time there's one less reason to watch: Donald Trump won't be there.
As part of his feud with Fox News, the network broadcasting the debate, the GOP poll frontrunner is skipping the event in Des Moines, Iowa, in favor of an "Event to Benefit Veterans' Organizations." Since Trump has been as ubiquitous as oxygen during the campaign, and other candidates have been defined by their opposition to him as much as their own policies, it's fair to wonder, what the hell are they going to debate about?
Well, they'll probably talk about Trump in absentia, for starters. Though he has a healthy lead in the nationwide polls, the Iowa polls are closer, and many think Texas Senator Ted Cruz has a good chance at knocking off the business mogul, who has never been a candidate for office before, at the caucuses on Monday. Cruz will likely continue to attack Trump on stage; so far he's called his opponent a "fragile soul" and challenged him to a "mano-a-mano" debate any time before the Iowa caucus. And, not to be high-roaded by the whole "benefit veterans" thing, Cruz's Super PAC has offered to give $1.5 million to veterans' charities if Trump says yes to Cruz's face-off. (At least one veterans' group said it wasn't interested in donations from any candidate.)
Others have used the chance to beat up on Trump, with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul telling CNN, "He thinks he's already elected himself king. I say, good riddance. We're going to have a much better debate."
You might think that without the famously angry reality TV show host in the mix things would get a bit more civil, but chances are it's just going to be a more evenly distributed bloodbath. Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who was polling alongside Ted Cruz back in November, is now showing signs of sliding into the also-ran bin, and Chris Christie seems to smell failure. The New Jersey governor has started taking aim at Rubio in interviews, saying the Cuban-American has "never accomplished anything." Adding to the pileup, Jeb Bush-affiliated anti-Rubio TV commercials are attacking him as a flip-flopper and an immigrant-lover. None of these candidates have much of a shot at winning Iowa, but they can still shoot for some good headlines that might appeal to voters outside the state.
Also hoping for good headlines is soft-spoken neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who at times seems barely to be running anymore. Earlier this month, Carson's campaign manager and 20 other staff members quit their jobs, then another staffer died in a van accident. Carson, who once led in Iowa, seems now to be an also-ran—and while you might ascribe his fall to the incoherence of his policies, that same thing doesn't seem to be hurting Trump.
There are other candidates too, and I guess I have to write about them and you have to read about them, so here we go: John Kasich continues to do well enough in the polls to earn a spot on the main stage, though he's mostly focused on New Hampshire. Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee recently unleashed an Adele song parody on the world Wednesday that critics have called "long." The song unfortunately didn't prevent Huck from being relegated to the dreaded undercard stage on Thursday night. That second-tier debate will also feature Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, who has been drifting out in the ether like this election's mysterious ninth planet.
While all this is going on, the Donald J. Trump Special Event to Benefit Veterans Organizations will be held just down the road from the debate venue at Drake University, meaning viewers will be forced to make a tough choice between Trump, the rest of the GOP, and I don't know, watching Netflix or something.
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