Since taking office, Donald Trump's notorious brand of populism has mostly faded into the background. Though he celebrates the announcement of every new Midwestern factory, when it comes to actually governing, the president has let conservative Republicans in Congress and his administration take the lead on everything from tax policy to the aggressive slashing of regulations to large-scale proposed cuts to government programs. Still, there are at least two people who still believe that Trump is capable of challenging right-wing economic dogma: White House adviser Steve Bannon, and Trump himself.
On Thursday, the Intercept reported that Bannon wants to raise the marginal tax rate on people making over $5 million a year to 44 percent. It would be a relatively small tweak to the tax code that would affect roughly 43,000 people and raise in the neighborhood of $18 billion a year (according to 2014 numbers). Still, an endorsement of raising taxes on anyone for any reason represents a major break with the orthodoxy of the Republican Party.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal this week, Trump indicated he shared this sentiment. He recounted a meeting with New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who he said told him, "Tax the rich people. You got to take care of the people in the country.' It was a very interesting statement. I feel the same way."
Those feelings haven't translated into policy, of course. A vague sketch of a tax proposal put forth by the White House in April would amount to a huge giveaway to rich people. And Bannon is second only to his boss in talking about ideas that never come to fruition. In November, the adviser bragged to the Hollywood Reporter about a "trillion-dollar infrastructure plan" that "will be as exciting as the 1930s, greater than the Reagan revolution—conservatives, plus populists, in an economic nationalist movement." That plan, like Bannon's proposed tax increase and so many of Trump's promises, has yet to materialize.
But if Trump is anything more than an erratic hype man, a tax increase would be a fairly effective way of demonstrating it. Poll after poll has found that most Americans think the rich pay too little in taxes—which they do, thanks to decades of right-wing anti-government rhetoric and tax cuts that have helped fuel income inequality and jacked up deficits.
Raising taxes on the rich isn't just good policy, though—it would almost certainly be good politics for Trump. Some right-wing outlets, like the Bannon-allied Breitbart, would probably support a tax increase simply because he called for one. Doctrinaire conservatives in Congress would almost certainly object, but if an increase on the wealthy were tied to another popular policy, like a middle-class tax cut or an infrastructure plan, it might be easy for Trump to beat up on them and bend at least some Republicans to his will. Democrats would be stuck in an awkward position—would they really oppose more taxes on the rich? That would just lend some credibility to Trump's characterization of the opposition as "obstructionists."
If Trump succeeded in raising taxes on the rich, it would be a real accomplishment of the sort the president hasn't yet had. Bipartisan tax reform would undoubtedly please the sort of mainstream commenters who routinely trash Trump. Even if he failed, he would have a talking point for the next three years, an indicator that he really is fighting for the little guy and not just rich people like the ones who work for him. It would be concrete proof that Trumpism is about more than just ragging on the media while giving high-profile jobs to people cursed with foot in mouth disease.
I don't think this will happen. The statements Trump gave to the Journal don't indicate anything in particular. As we all know by now, the president has a habit of rambling and improvising during interviews. Sooner or later, he was bound to hit on a good idea during one of these sessions. But his more promising thoughts seem to get lost minutes later, just like everything he dangles. Oh well.
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