(Sipa via AP Images)
Within hours of the horrific massacre at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando on Sunday, media outlets associated with the Islamic State moved to claim "lone wolf" Omar Mateen as one of their own. Initial reports detailing the terrorist's searches for jihadist content leading up to the attack, along with confirmation that he pledged his allegiance to ISIS while inside the club, served to bolster the legitimacy of the self-described caliphate's declaration of solidarity. But rumors have since trickled out suggesting Mateen may have acted in no small part based on his own confused sexual orientation and attendant self-loathing. The narrative of a troubled gay man has led some observers to suggest that ISIS, a viciously anti-gay group, claimed Mateen too soon—and that the terrorist outfit might suffer from the irony of hastily inducting him into its bigoted ranks.
According to a number of terrorism analysts tracking the ISIS response to Orlando, however, the group's propagandists may be able to play Mateen's identity to their advantage. Even if they can't, experts suggest ISIS simply cannot back away from the attack, which arrived at a fortuitous time as it weathers a multi-front assault in the Middle East. Indeed, the tragedy may be used as fuel for a potentially powerful new ISIS propaganda blitz more explicitly targeting the LGBTQ community than ever before.
That ISIS would go all-in on Mateen is a bit surprising given the tentative nature of the group's initial claim to the attack. On Sunday, Amaq—the Islamic State's official news agency-slash-propaganda division—issued a statement that seemed more restrained than usual, almost like they were testing the waters, according to Veryan Khan of the Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium (TRAC). The group followed up with further statements and basic images and videos, but even those materials paled in comparison to those released after the Brussels or Paris attacks.
"Nothing splashy, nothing in high-def," Khan tells VICE. "That's all just recycled material."
The Islamic State may have felt pushed to make a rapid claim, Khan suggests, because in the hours following the attack almost every major Islamic extremist group on Earth seemed eager to take credit as well. According to RAND Corporation political scientist and terrorism watcher Colin Clarke, once US outlets began linking the attacks to ISIS, it was almost natural for their propagandists to try and capitalize.
"We've seen people be guilted that way before and pushed towards the jihadist movement." —Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Now ISIS seems to be escalating coverage of the attack, creating higher-quality posters and distributing them via Telegram channels named after the shooter. Khan suspects these posters are the prelude to a new round of Orlando-focused propaganda videos, while Clarke posits that ISIS may eventually profile Mateen in Dabiq, its glossy apocalyptic magazine.
Post-Orlando ISIS propaganda courtesy of TRAC
According to Clarke, ISIS propagandists are doubling down in part because they've never really backed away from a claim of responsibility before. They can also easily brush off emerging details on Mateen and his sexual orientation as Western fabrications. "It just proves that infidels lie more than anyone . Like: 'Oh shit, why didn't we think about this? We already hate them!'"
An Orlando-focused media blitz by ISIS operatives will do little to help the group weather attacks on its territories. But regardless of what we learn about Mateen, experts concur the group will use this attack to breathe new life into its propaganda machine, milking it for everything it's worth. And they're apparently willing do so with a new international focus on and vitriol tward LGBTQ communities. One can only pray they do not succeed.
Follow Mark Hay on Twitter.
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