The deadly explosion in Beirut earlier this month has left people in disbelief both for the human costs but also for what the government has admitted to be the cause of the devastation: negligence. Prime Minister Hassan Diab revealed 2750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate had been stored at a warehouse for six years “without precautionary measures being taken”. With this revelation, the reaction to the disaster has been split two ways. A mix of horror at the extreme negligence that caused this, along with fears that this is merely a cover for a much larger involvement.
Nadim El-Kak, a researcher at the Lebanese Centre for Political Studies said that following the blast, there was widespread belief that Israeli forces were somehow behind the incident – and given Lebanon’s history of conflict with Israel, Nadim isn’t surprised that many people were quick to believe that assumption. It’s an indicator of the instability and fear generations of Lebanese citizens have grown up in, for first thoughts of a disaster to be reminiscent of an attack. But people also find it difficult to believe official accounts from the government, and questions have arisen regarding the story behind this negligence.
If authorities thought citing “negligence” as a cause would be enough to prevent deeper investigation, their attempts have failed as backlash against those very public figures has risen to a scale that hasn’t been seen in years.
Dr Sherifa Zuhur, former professor at the US Army War College and MIT believes a large part of the anti-government protests have just coupled with established movements that were set up prior to the blast.
“Lebanon had been undergoing a popular revolution, with calls for the traditional leadership to step aside,” she told VICE News. “The economic crisis, the police and the army’s treatment of demonstrators, and Covid-19 dampened that revolution, so amongst those currently demonstrating are the previous demonstrators, and others have joined them.”
Prime Minister Diab’s response to the protest was to announce the resignation of the government, but protests have continued regardless. The loss of over 200 lives appears to be the last straw for anti-corruption protesters who have been dealing with corrupt authorities for far too long.
But again, this is not unprecedented. In 2011, Lebanon’s government collapsed when it’s Hezbollah-led opposition pulled out. The move was a reaction to Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s refusal to discuss the details of his father’s murder in cabinet and was aided by the resignation of Adnan Sayed Hussein, a minister closely allied with Hariri. Instability in institutions of power undoubtedly leads to a power vacuum, one that would, unsurprisingly, be the perfect opportunity for Hezbollah and it’s allied groups to take control.
Nadim further added that Hezbollah had been suspected of stealing the ammonium nitrate from the stockpile that had exploded. If these rumours turn out to be true, it’s a dangerous indication of just how widespread Hezbollah’s reach is.
According to Dr. Zuhur the protesters may not achieve all their goals. There is a high probability that Hezbollah will manage to keep their allied Prime Minister in power, much like they did in 2018 when they won a majority of seats. With Hezbollah’s power spread across the country, and its volatile and ongoing conflict with Israel, there seems to be a constant fear of when armed skirmishes at the border may turn into something bigger. The 2006 Israel-Lebanon war holds as a recent example of just that.
Professor Yazid Sayigh, senior fellow at Carnegie Middle East Centre believes Hezbollah will have to be cautious in the steps they take following the incident. Their fears of a US campaign targeting them will lead to a closer reliance on their political allies, which include Nabih Berri and President Michel Aoun. Their political position will leave them unable to support protesters who are accusing these very allies of systemic corruption. It’s an interesting shift from Hezbollah’s roots, when the movement first gained popularity on giving the people what other institutions couldn’t.
But it’s clear that the movement has changed drastically from when it first began. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has made several speeches where he has disassociated the group from the events surrounding the blast. As political institutions in Lebanon moved further and further away from Western alliances – towards a more Hezbollah oriented stance – aid and international assistance had come to a halt. Seeing the party as the reason for not receiving much needed aid will not bode well for their popularity. And according to Nadim El Kak, neither will the growing perception that Hezbollah is turning into a tool for the Iranian regime. He further added that the current crisis caused by the blast could well become an opportunity for Western powers to intervene and take power away from Hezbollah.
With the damage caused by the blast, which has been estimated at $15 billion by President Aoun , Lebanon’s already precarious financial situation is now on the verge of collapse. But even though the blast has caused an influx of aid into the country, it may not be a permanent solution.
As valuable as the aid is, there is nothing that is preventing it from going back into the same corrupt system and being used for political purposes. Should that happen, the aid itself may not be available for long either. Already, the $11 billion economic lifeline for the country was based on the implementation of reforms in multiple industries including electricity, infrastructure and more. Even if the money was to be used correctly this time around, a route which seems highly unlikely, the history of corruption in the country has coloured the world’s view around Lebanon.
The problem with wanting to fix these corrupt institutions, is that they aren’t associated with one single government or political party. The lack of transparency and consequently taking advantage of that has been around since Lebanon’s independence from the French. Lebanon’s government systems have been created to represent its various sectarian communities. As such, the law states that the President has to be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker Parliament a Shiite Muslim. But since no census has been taken since 1932, the shift in majority towards the Shiite community isn’t represented in government offices. It could partly be the reason why allegiances within Lebanese communities lie towards sectarian and feudal leaders as opposed to the central government. Dr. Zuhur further adds that a major reason for lack of allegiance to the government is the widespread poverty in the country. Rural populations, in particular, feel unable to depend on government institutions for aid and turn to local sectarian leaders.
It’s a situation that’s only been worsened by third party interference - particularly the militarised role of Israel and Syria. Israel’s interference in the country dates back to the establishment of a PLO stronghold, and has prevailed over the rise and fall of such influences. The interference of the two outside militaries also worsened the already volatile civil war in 1975, and led to a direct war with Israel in 2006. Lebanon’s place in the Arab world has always been a precarious one - teetering dangerously around debates surrounding identity.
If there’s one thing to be taken away from all this, it’s that the blast isn’t a stand alone event and the disaster it has left in its wake can not be curbed if treated as such. According to Professor Sayigh and Nadim El Kak, the disaster has only worsened existing conditions - pushing the country to the brink of civil crisis. What is now needed is a complete overhaul of the existing systems, which is neither easy nor completely possible in the time frame that it is needed. With aid resuming, the country risks becoming a potential battleground for Eastern and Western camps, Nadim says. Lebanon’s history has left a legacy that can longer be ignored. It is not the job of one man or leader to deal with this crisis and the underlying issues of the system can no longer be hidden under corrupt politics and power.
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